After a period of dormancy, could it be goldâ??s time to shine once again? The market is flashing some fairly clear signs, as Justice explores…

Last week we talked about Chinaâ??s stealth abandonment of the dollar, and the quiet strategic moves being employed against the United States. We also mentioned â??Go,â? an ancient game played on a 19×19 board with black and white stones.

In that regard, Taipan Daily reader LBT writes,

Dear Justice:

Superb, as I generally say when writing to you.

I have a question for you: have you ever played “go,” as we call it, or seen it played?

On the surface Go/Wei Chi is a child’s game that can be explained in a couple of minutes. Once you understand how to construct a formation with two eyes that cannot be captured you know enough to dive right in and play.

Beginners almost always scrunch themselves up in a corner and waste enormous points (which are given for territory â?? empty points â?? which the other player does not wish to contest OR for men actually captured, usually a far lesser number.) Those of us who’ve been around the board a time or two get aggressive with our outposts on the other side of the board early and fight such small battles as look profitable to us…

Beginners sit there delicately filling in valuable real estate in their attempts to ensure safety, while good players know to spread around counters so that they can guide a small battle for territory over to an area they have staked out in advance.

The real point here is that this can be a very subtle game and the most important thing to look for is patterns. I’m a pretty good player, and I relax my eyes deliberately from time to time and let the board go out of focus. In a sense it is the “forest vs. the trees” thing (usually useless) where what you have to see is that there is an ornamental garden if you have the wit to see it. You cannot concentrate all of the time on individual points or you miss big opportunities.

I suspect that the Chinese are way, way ahead of us in thinking out all of the possibilities and ramifications, and that they will not attack the dollar “for real” until they expect to come out well ahead.

LBT

To answer your question LBT, I have seen the game played but not explored it personally (yet). So many riches in life yet to sample…

You make a great point, too, about the value of relaxing oneâ??s eyes and not getting caught up in the small things. More to say on that, particularly as it relates to trading, in a future Taipan Daily.

China Ups the Ante

In regards to the â??great gameâ? that revolves around global currency markets, China unveiled a surprise not-so-subtle move on Friday.

Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE, revealed to the world that China holds 76% more gold reserves than previously disclosed. As it turns out, China is sitting on closer to 1,054 tons than 600 tons. This is still a drop in the bucket compared to some $2 trillion worth of total reserves, but the needle is ticking in the right direction.

As I wrote to Safe Haven Investor readers on Friday, â??the timing of the disclosure is curious,â? further adding the following:

Does China want a higher gold price? In the short run, thatâ??s hard to say. Sometimes a big buyer prefers a temporary lower price, which enables them to get better value on their additional buys.

Clearly, though, this move was intended to boost gold (which it succeeded in doing) and spook the dollar a bit more.

It may be that China was worried about all the loose talk of IMF sales having too much of a negative effect on the yellow metal, and so they wanted to say â??Hey, guess what. Thereâ??s plenty more buying power in the wings here. Donâ??t forget that…â?

In some ways, â??surpriseâ? developments like these arenâ??t all that surprising. We canâ??t know the timing in advance of when a secretive government agency will make an announcement, of course. But we can (and do) recognize that the US dollar has a terminal long-term prognosis.

Whatever Chinaâ??s hidden intentions in talking up their buys, prospects for a fresh outbreak of â??gold feverâ? look strong here.

As stocks went on a tear in recent weeks, with the junkiest, lowest quality names leading the pack (particularly in the battered and beleaguered financial sector), gold did not break down, instead holding ground at 200-day moving average support.

Also note that GLD â?? which is big enough now to perhaps be an even more important barometer than gold futures contracts â?? managed to recently retake the levels above its 50-day EMA, and that all three key moving average levels (the 200, the 100 and the 50) have banded together as support here.

India Lends a Hand

We can further note that key negative factors for gold are easing a bit.

A few weeks ago, in a piece title â??Whatâ??s Driving Gold and Gold Stocks (Part One),â? we said the following in these pages:

India, the â??worldâ??s largest gold buyer by a wide margin,â? has even stopped importing â??for the first time in 10 years,â? the Financial Times reports. In February and March India saw zero gold imports, while January imports came in light. Vietnam and Thailand, normally reliable buyers of gold, have also been selling. Stepped-up scrap sales have even put Asia scrap sales at a discount to the standard London quote.

As the seasons change â?? and festival season picks up â?? India is returning to its old habits. After virtually â??zeroâ? gold imports in February and March, provisional statistics from the Bombay Bullion Association suggest India has imported as much as 30 tons of gold and 60 tons of silver for the month of April thus far.

Spec Rally Running on Fumes?

Another factor weighing in goldâ??s favor is the real possibility that this speculative rally in â??junkâ? stocks is running on fumes â?? and that the whole thing could end in tears.

While itâ??s good to see a number of quality names lifted higher by positive market sentiment, itâ??s distressing to see so many turkeys flying high too â?? a sign that the windstorm probably wonâ??t last. Whatâ??s more, we are now seeing a rapid unloading of insider shares according to Bloomberg:

Executives and insiders at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the steepest stock market gains since 1938 to unload shares at the fastest pace since the start of the bear market…

While the Standard & Poorâ??s 500 Index climbed 28 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, CEOs, directors and senior officers at U.S. companies sold $353 million of equities this month, or 8.3 times more than they bought, data compiled by Washington Service, a Bethesda, Maryland-based research firm, show.

Not exactly a shining vote of confidence, that. To the degree that this rally has been fueled by a combination of short squeeze, bogus bank earnings and balance sheet hocus-pocus, the risk of a big downside whoosh is heightened â?? which further improves the outlook for gold.

And Last but Not Least, Swine Flu

And then, of course, we have the global outbreak of swine flu. If youâ??ve been scanning the headlines, this is pretty scary stuff.

Here is a list of countries either dealing with confirmed cases of swine flu, testing potential cases, or setting up active quarantine measures thus far: Australia, New Zealand, Israel, France, Spain, the United States (at least 11 confirmed cases), Canada (six cases), of course Mexico (the epicenter), Singapore, Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China and Russia. Iâ??ve probably missed a few.

â??Itâ??s a bit movie-like, it doesnâ??t feel real,â? an unnamed New Zealand student said, in reference to the quarantine process after getting sick in Mexico.

Letâ??s just hope it doesnâ??t get even more â??movie-like.â? Outbreak and Twelve Monkeys come to mind…

Putting Hollywood aside, itâ??s too early to panic â?? but it isnâ??t too early to start thinking about consequences. We are already getting word that this new swine flu is a sort of hybrid not really seen before. And we know an event like this is potentially far more serious in economic terms than, say, an isolated terrorist attack, because of the degree of global â??shutdownâ? that can occur.

Taking a grimly opportunistic view of things, the threat of escalation on the swine flu front bolsters the gold case in two areas. First as a form of â??crisis insuranceâ? â?? a place to hide when things start looking ugly again â?? and a second as a doubly renewed form of â??printing press insurance,â? given the fact that global slowdown brought about by swine flu might give the powers that be even more excuse to pump trillions of paper dollars into the system.

Got gold?

Itâ??s in the news every day – swine flu is spreading, more cases confirmed, more countries affected, schools closedâ?¦

Will it be a flu pandemic like 1918, which lasted over a year and killed 50 million people worldwide, or will it fizzle out like in 1976, when more people died from the vaccine than from the flu? (25 from the vaccine, 1 from the flu.)

I wasnâ??t around in 1918, so I canâ??t say what it was like, but this latest strain appears to be milder than the usual fluâ??s. When you have flu, you might feel like death warmed up, but flu is normally only life threatening to the very old, the very young and those who already have serious health problems.

This latest flu is no different â?? most of the deaths (and there havenâ??t been many) have been people in these vulnerable groups.

For healthy adults and older children, youâ??re not likely to die of flu, swine flu or any other. If you want to avoid it, concentrate on staying well, not on worrying about getting ill (worrying lowers your immune function).

• Take lots of vitamin C, which helps your immune system.

• Avoid sugary, fatty and processed foods and artificial additives. These sap your bodyâ??s energy as it works hard to digest them and clear them out.

• Eat lots of fresh fruit and vegetables for their vitamins and minerals, and to keep your blood pH alkaline. Germs of any sort canâ??t survive well in an alkaline environment.

• Get plenty of exercise. Exercise encourages deep breathing and stimulates your blood flow, getting more oxygen to every cell of your body. Bacteria and viruses donâ??t like too much oxygen, but your cells like plenty.

The best protection for small babies is their motherâ??s milk. For weaned babies and toddlers, and the elderly, the tips above will help â?? lots of vitamin C, lots of good food, stay off the junk food, moderate exercise and lots of fresh air.

If you donâ??t want to rely only on your immune system, you can use the added protection of plant power. The Four Thievesâ?? Vinegar was proved to be potent against the most contagious and deadly of diseases.

The Four Thieves used common herbs to protect themselves from infection while robbing from houses whose owners had died of plague. They themselves never got ill.

The herbs they used were ones that you might well have in your garden – rosemary, thyme, sage and lavender. Not only do these herbs smell wonderful; they are powerful disinfectants. The original four thieves sprinkled themselves with a vinegar infusion of these herbs before entering the streets and houses where plague was rife.

You can use these herbs in lots of ways: carry sprigs of them around with you, place them in vases round the house, or make an infusion (i.e. pour boiling water over the fresh or dried herbs, like making tea) and add it to your bath, rinse your clothes with it, use it around the house as a disinfectant.

If you are planning further ahead, you can make the vinegar infusion. Place a handful of each herb in a jar of cider vinegar. (Cider vinegar is another natural antiseptic.) Leave it to infuse for six weeks then strain off the herbs. You can keep the liquid in a spray bottle for convenience. Spray it round the house or on yourself â?? the smell of vinegar will soon go, leaving a subtle smell of the herbs.

If you prefer, you can use essential oils instead. They have the same antiviral and antibacterial properties as the whole plant, in a more concentrated form. (Never use them undiluted on your skin.) I often use thyme oil as a disinfectant. Tea tree, from Australia, is even stronger. Tea tree and lavender are two oils that are safe to use undiluted.

Herbs and their essential oils are made of many different molecules, so that viruses and bacteria can never develop resistance to them in the way that they do to chemical drugs. Also, they donâ??t have harmful side effects. Have you read the list of side effects of the common flu drugs?

After a period of dormancy, could it be goldâ??s time to shine once again? The market is flashing some fairly clear signs, as Justice explores…

Last week we talked about Chinaâ??s stealth abandonment of the dollar, and the quiet strategic moves being employed against the United States. We also mentioned â??Go,â? an ancient game played on a 19×19 board with black and white stones.

In that regard, Taipan Daily reader LBT writes,

Dear Justice:

Superb, as I generally say when writing to you.

I have a question for you: have you ever played “go,” as we call it, or seen it played?

On the surface Go/Wei Chi is a child’s game that can be explained in a couple of minutes. Once you understand how to construct a formation with two eyes that cannot be captured you know enough to dive right in and play.

Beginners almost always scrunch themselves up in a corner and waste enormous points (which are given for territory â?? empty points â?? which the other player does not wish to contest OR for men actually captured, usually a far lesser number.) Those of us who’ve been around the board a time or two get aggressive with our outposts on the other side of the board early and fight such small battles as look profitable to us…

Beginners sit there delicately filling in valuable real estate in their attempts to ensure safety, while good players know to spread around counters so that they can guide a small battle for territory over to an area they have staked out in advance.

The real point here is that this can be a very subtle game and the most important thing to look for is patterns. I’m a pretty good player, and I relax my eyes deliberately from time to time and let the board go out of focus. In a sense it is the “forest vs. the trees” thing (usually useless) where what you have to see is that there is an ornamental garden if you have the wit to see it. You cannot concentrate all of the time on individual points or you miss big opportunities.

I suspect that the Chinese are way, way ahead of us in thinking out all of the possibilities and ramifications, and that they will not attack the dollar “for real” until they expect to come out well ahead.

LBT

To answer your question LBT, I have seen the game played but not explored it personally (yet). So many riches in life yet to sample…

You make a great point, too, about the value of relaxing oneâ??s eyes and not getting caught up in the small things. More to say on that, particularly as it relates to trading, in a future Taipan Daily.

China Ups the Ante

In regards to the â??great gameâ? that revolves around global currency markets, China unveiled a surprise not-so-subtle move on Friday.

Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, or SAFE, revealed to the world that China holds 76% more gold reserves than previously disclosed. As it turns out, China is sitting on closer to 1,054 tons than 600 tons. This is still a drop in the bucket compared to some $2 trillion worth of total reserves, but the needle is ticking in the right direction.

As I wrote to Safe Haven Investor readers on Friday, â??the timing of the disclosure is curious,â? further adding the following:

Does China want a higher gold price? In the short run, thatâ??s hard to say. Sometimes a big buyer prefers a temporary lower price, which enables them to get better value on their additional buys.

Clearly, though, this move was intended to boost gold (which it succeeded in doing) and spook the dollar a bit more.

It may be that China was worried about all the loose talk of IMF sales having too much of a negative effect on the yellow metal, and so they wanted to say â??Hey, guess what. Thereâ??s plenty more buying power in the wings here. Donâ??t forget that…â?

In some ways, â??surpriseâ? developments like these arenâ??t all that surprising. We canâ??t know the timing in advance of when a secretive government agency will make an announcement, of course. But we can (and do) recognize that the US dollar has a terminal long-term prognosis.

Whatever Chinaâ??s hidden intentions in talking up their buys, prospects for a fresh outbreak of â??gold feverâ? look strong here.

As stocks went on a tear in recent weeks, with the junkiest, lowest quality names leading the pack (particularly in the battered and beleaguered financial sector), gold did not break down, instead holding ground at 200-day moving average support.

Also note that GLD â?? which is big enough now to perhaps be an even more important barometer than gold futures contracts â?? managed to recently retake the levels above its 50-day EMA, and that all three key moving average levels (the 200, the 100 and the 50) have banded together as support here.

India Lends a Hand

We can further note that key negative factors for gold are easing a bit.

A few weeks ago, in a piece title â??Whatâ??s Driving Gold and Gold Stocks (Part One),â? we said the following in these pages:

India, the â??worldâ??s largest gold buyer by a wide margin,â? has even stopped importing â??for the first time in 10 years,â? the Financial Times reports. In February and March India saw zero gold imports, while January imports came in light. Vietnam and Thailand, normally reliable buyers of gold, have also been selling. Stepped-up scrap sales have even put Asia scrap sales at a discount to the standard London quote.

As the seasons change â?? and festival season picks up â?? India is returning to its old habits. After virtually â??zeroâ? gold imports in February and March, provisional statistics from the Bombay Bullion Association suggest India has imported as much as 30 tons of gold and 60 tons of silver for the month of April thus far.

Spec Rally Running on Fumes?

Another factor weighing in goldâ??s favor is the real possibility that this speculative rally in â??junkâ? stocks is running on fumes â?? and that the whole thing could end in tears.

While itâ??s good to see a number of quality names lifted higher by positive market sentiment, itâ??s distressing to see so many turkeys flying high too â?? a sign that the windstorm probably wonâ??t last. Whatâ??s more, we are now seeing a rapid unloading of insider shares according to Bloomberg:

Executives and insiders at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the steepest stock market gains since 1938 to unload shares at the fastest pace since the start of the bear market…

While the Standard & Poorâ??s 500 Index climbed 28 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, CEOs, directors and senior officers at U.S. companies sold $353 million of equities this month, or 8.3 times more than they bought, data compiled by Washington Service, a Bethesda, Maryland-based research firm, show.

Not exactly a shining vote of confidence, that. To the degree that this rally has been fueled by a combination of short squeeze, bogus bank earnings and balance sheet hocus-pocus, the risk of a big downside whoosh is heightened â?? which further improves the outlook for gold.

And Last but Not Least, Swine Flu

And then, of course, we have the global outbreak of swine flu. If youâ??ve been scanning the headlines, this is pretty scary stuff.

Here is a list of countries either dealing with confirmed cases of swine flu, testing potential cases, or setting up active quarantine measures thus far: Australia, New Zealand, Israel, France, Spain, the United States (at least 11 confirmed cases), Canada (six cases), of course Mexico (the epicenter), Singapore, Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Taiwan, China and Russia. Iâ??ve probably missed a few.

â??Itâ??s a bit movie-like, it doesnâ??t feel real,â? an unnamed New Zealand student said, in reference to the quarantine process after getting sick in Mexico.

Letâ??s just hope it doesnâ??t get even more â??movie-like.â? Outbreak and Twelve Monkeys come to mind…

Putting Hollywood aside, itâ??s too early to panic â?? but it isnâ??t too early to start thinking about consequences. We are already getting word that this new swine flu is a sort of hybrid not really seen before. And we know an event like this is potentially far more serious in economic terms than, say, an isolated terrorist attack, because of the degree of global â??shutdownâ? that can occur.

Taking a grimly opportunistic view of things, the threat of escalation on the swine flu front bolsters the gold case in two areas. First as a form of â??crisis insuranceâ? â?? a place to hide when things start looking ugly again â?? and a second as a doubly renewed form of â??printing press insurance,â? given the fact that global slowdown brought about by swine flu might give the powers that be even more excuse to pump trillions of paper dollars into the system.

Got gold?

Itâ??s in the news every day – swine flu is spreading, more cases confirmed, more countries affected, schools closedâ?¦

Will it be a flu pandemic like 1918, which lasted over a year and killed 50 million people worldwide, or will it fizzle out like in 1976, when more people died from the vaccine than from the flu? (25 from the vaccine, 1 from the flu.)

I wasnâ??t around in 1918, so I canâ??t say what it was like, but this latest strain appears to be milder than the usual fluâ??s. When you have flu, you might feel like death warmed up, but flu is normally only life threatening to the very old, the very young and those who already have serious health problems.

This latest flu is no different â?? most of the deaths (and there havenâ??t been many) have been people in these vulnerable groups.

For healthy adults and older children, youâ??re not likely to die of flu, swine flu or any other. If you want to avoid it, concentrate on staying well, not on worrying about getting ill (worrying lowers your immune function).

• Take lots of vitamin C, which helps your immune system.

• Avoid sugary, fatty and processed foods and artificial additives. These sap your bodyâ??s energy as it works hard to digest them and clear them out.

• Eat lots of fresh fruit and vegetables for their vitamins and minerals, and to keep your blood pH alkaline. Germs of any sort canâ??t survive well in an alkaline environment.

• Get plenty of exercise. Exercise encourages deep breathing and stimulates your blood flow, getting more oxygen to every cell of your body. Bacteria and viruses donâ??t like too much oxygen, but your cells like plenty.

The best protection for small babies is their motherâ??s milk. For weaned babies and toddlers, and the elderly, the tips above will help â?? lots of vitamin C, lots of good food, stay off the junk food, moderate exercise and lots of fresh air.

If you donâ??t want to rely only on your immune system, you can use the added protection of plant power. The Four Thievesâ?? Vinegar was proved to be potent against the most contagious and deadly of diseases.

The Four Thieves used common herbs to protect themselves from infection while robbing from houses whose owners had died of plague. They themselves never got ill.

The herbs they used were ones that you might well have in your garden – rosemary, thyme, sage and lavender. Not only do these herbs smell wonderful; they are powerful disinfectants. The original four thieves sprinkled themselves with a vinegar infusion of these herbs before entering the streets and houses where plague was rife.

You can use these herbs in lots of ways: carry sprigs of them around with you, place them in vases round the house, or make an infusion (i.e. pour boiling water over the fresh or dried herbs, like making tea) and add it to your bath, rinse your clothes with it, use it around the house as a disinfectant.

If you are planning further ahead, you can make the vinegar infusion. Place a handful of each herb in a jar of cider vinegar. (Cider vinegar is another natural antiseptic.) Leave it to infuse for six weeks then strain off the herbs. You can keep the liquid in a spray bottle for convenience. Spray it round the house or on yourself â?? the smell of vinegar will soon go, leaving a subtle smell of the herbs.

If you prefer, you can use essential oils instead. They have the same antiviral and antibacterial properties as the whole plant, in a more concentrated form. (Never use them undiluted on your skin.) I often use thyme oil as a disinfectant. Tea tree, from Australia, is even stronger. Tea tree and lavender are two oils that are safe to use undiluted.

Herbs and their essential oils are made of many different molecules, so that viruses and bacteria can never develop resistance to them in the way that they do to chemical drugs. Also, they donâ??t have harmful side effects. Have you read the list of side effects of the common flu drugs?

We have learned the following eight lessons:

1. Companies that had developed and tested their business pandemic response plan had the most success in managing the impact of the outbreak.

2.  The H1N1 virus spread more rapidly than expected.  Our assumptions were based on the belief that a pandemic would start in Asia and the spread would be relatively slow. It didnâ??t. Business pandemic response plans must be adaptable to changing conditions and designed to respond appropriately to the severity of an outbreak.

3. School closings had a major impact on numbers of employees reporting for work. Employers found they needed to be more flexible with their work-from-home options.

4. The health care system was overwhelmed with only a mild outbreak.

5. Firms with a global presence found that it was difficult to manage a global crisis with one single message. Communication plans need to develop appropriate messages for both domestic and overseas audiences.

6. Travel policies need to be adaptable to variables such as: the necessity of the trip, the likelihood of the employeeâ??s exposure to crowds, the individualâ??s health condition, the severity of the event, etc.

7. International coordination was more complicated than expected.

8. Some shipments were stopped and sent back by customs authorities.

These results tell us that the business community is not fully prepared for a severe pandemic influenza. Most H1N1 (Swine Flu) cases have been mild, though pandemics often have a second wave and health officials say the strain could mutate and become more severe as it did in 1918 Spanish Flu. As we approach the seasonal flu season, there is a short window for businesses to develop or fine tune their business pandemic response plan.

We have learned the following eight lessons:

1. Companies that had developed and tested their business pandemic response plan had the most success in managing the impact of the outbreak.

2.  The H1N1 virus spread more rapidly than expected.  Our assumptions were based on the belief that a pandemic would start in Asia and the spread would be relatively slow. It didnâ??t. Business pandemic response plans must be adaptable to changing conditions and designed to respond appropriately to the severity of an outbreak.

3. School closings had a major impact on numbers of employees reporting for work. Employers found they needed to be more flexible with their work-from-home options.

4. The health care system was overwhelmed with only a mild outbreak.

5. Firms with a global presence found that it was difficult to manage a global crisis with one single message. Communication plans need to develop appropriate messages for both domestic and overseas audiences.

6. Travel policies need to be adaptable to variables such as: the necessity of the trip, the likelihood of the employeeâ??s exposure to crowds, the individualâ??s health condition, the severity of the event, etc.

7. International coordination was more complicated than expected.

8. Some shipments were stopped and sent back by customs authorities.

These results tell us that the business community is not fully prepared for a severe pandemic influenza. Most H1N1 (Swine Flu) cases have been mild, though pandemics often have a second wave and health officials say the strain could mutate and become more severe as it did in 1918 Spanish Flu. As we approach the seasonal flu season, there is a short window for businesses to develop or fine tune their business pandemic response plan.

Puerto Vallarta real estate slowed down considerably because of the global recession, then by the lull in tourism triggered by the swine flu travel advisory.  Although the global economic situation continues, Puerto Vallarta´s resilient charm and beauty are bringing the tourists back again.  This is good news for Puerto Vallarta real estate, showing that the cityâ??s key industry is resilient and will continue to be strong.

Among the good signs are that hotel occupancy in Puerto Vallarta is rising weekly.  This week has seen a 5.7% increase over the last week.  Several factors have played a role in this.  While tourism has been on an increase throughout Mexico, specific initiatives for this area have also had an impact.

One example of these initiatives is the â??Jalisco en Vivoâ? concert which was held in Puerto Vallarta on June 20th.  The concert, which was planned with the primary goal of rebuilding tourism, attracted a local, national and international audience.  Among other factors, this concert helped the effort to slow down and eventually reverse the drop off of tourism; the week before the concert had seen a 14.3% decrease in hotel occupancy, while the weak of the concert felt less of an impact, with an 8.6% decrease.  Now, the during the third week after the event, hotel occupancy has increased 5.7%.

There is hope that the initial success of the concert will be repeated on as the concert is aired on T.V. throughout Mexico, Latin America, parts of the U.S. and some places in Europe.  On the Saturday, July 11, the program received strong ratings on Mexican T.V., and the concert should continue to draw touristsâ?? attention â?? both Mexican and international – to Puerto Vallarta.

Another program, this time on the state level, is giving free guided tours and excursions from Guadalajara.  These program includes 40 destinations of the stateâ??s 11 main tourist destinations (including Puerto Vallarta), offering 120 excursions for more than 5000 tourists.  The trips include transportation and guided tours, and will be offered until August 21st.  The program will be promoted in over 60 information booths, and has seen an investment of about 1,200,000 pesos.  Although the focus of this program is local tourism, the presence of more tourists will support tourist based businesses in areas entirely dependent on this industry, helping to boost the industry while international tourism continues to rise.

These and other factors are helping tourism in Puerto Vallarta, the cityâ??s main industry, move upward again, and quickly.  Those interested in Puerto Vallarta real estate will see this as a good sign, as we wait for the global recession to turn around.

New Zealand deservedly has a reputation as a tour destination that offers some of the best and most accessible adventure opportunities available. However, with adventure travel comes risk. Understanding this risk and how to manage it is the key to operating a quality adventure tour experience.

The increasingly sophisticated world traveler demands a level of authenticity and involvement in their travel that was not present in the past. This requirement puts demands on tour operators that have to be met but also carefully managed. In the case of adventure tourism, these twin requirements of authenticity and involvement lead to an inevitable risk profile associated with the provision of the tourism product.

It is not possible, nor desirable to eliminate all risk. The very essence of this mode of tourism is to provide the traveler with an experience outside his or her daily range, to push their limits. Elimination of the risk in the experience eliminates the authenticity and therefore the depth of experience the traveler is seeking. Having accepted that some risk is inevitable and desirable, it then becomes important to understand risk.

One of the huge issues with risk is that the public perception of a risk level is not closely related to the actual risk level. This point is currently being very clearly demonstrated in the media coverage surrounding swine flu. As of 16:00 GMT, 5 May 2009, 21 countries, including New Zealand have officially reported 1490 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection with 30 confirmed deaths (source: World Health Organization). The disease has been met with blow-by-blow media coverage, detailing the possible spread of the disease and development into a pandemic. Public facilities have been closed, negative travel advisories have decimated local tourism businesses, and even the pig industry has suffered as people stop eating pork. Compare these figures with those for malaria, a disease that has been present for so long it is no longer news worthy. In 2006 there were 247 million cases of malaria, causing nearly one million deaths (source: World Health Organization). What is the current focus on malaria in the media even though it dwarfs swine flu by every measure? Clearly the issues of perception and reality don’t meet in this case. This is probably a lucky thing as if they did meet; most people would be too scared to drive to work.

 

How then does this relate to tourism in New Zealand? We have identified that risk is desirable and that the perception of that risk is highly subjective. In creating an adventure tour product, leveraging the issue of perception is very valuable. It is possible to create activities that have a genuine risk profile but are perceived to be much more risky than they actually are. We term this “psychological risk”.

A critical part of this process is to carefully manage this risk, so that the perception remains but the actuality is reduced. In New Zealand, the health and safety regulations along with the active involvement of many of the industry organizations helps tour operators understand risk and work to minimize risk factors. Thus the New Zealand tour industry has become highly proficient at offering a wide range of activities that offer a genuine sense of adventure while minimizing the true risk factors that might affect the adventure.

In summary, adventure tourism in New Zealand cannot and should not avoid all risk, but by careful management of the main risk factors, the risk that guests are exposed to in a well run adventure tourism activity can be minimized to a point where they are acceptable, even though the perception of that risk might well be significantly higher.

A key factor in Mexico Real Estate, especially a market like that of Playa del Carmen, is the strength of tourism in the area. For this very reason, contrary to what one might think, now is the IDEAL time to buy here; because of the international recession and the swine-flu travel advisory, the current market is at a low point, which means reduced prices, sometimes very reduced. However, in addition to the confidence which the history of the Playa del Carmen real estate market offers us, (see â??Second chance in the Playa del Carmen Real Estate marketâ? in our real estate blog), the government of Mexico has just launched the â??Vive Mexicoâ? program, which will add to our confidence that the market will soon be on an upward trend, and that this is an ideal time to invest. Those considering buying a home, or looking for an investment in Playa del Carmen may hesitate to buy at a time when appreciation has leveled off. But considering the importance of tourism in this market, any indication that tourism will soon be on the rise again is a good sign. The â??Vive Mexicoâ? program considerably strengthens these prospects. President Calderon is challenging Mexicoâ??s tourist industry, â??Letâ??s show the world what we really are,â? and do better than ever. This is just what the â??Vive Mexicoâ? program is going to do, redoubling effort in innovative ways to promote Mexicoâ??s tourist destinations, and offering special prices to an extent which has never been seen before. So, what does this program include? An unprecedented financial investment of 90 million dollars (1.2 billion pesos). This money will be used to promote Mexico â??in every way possible as a tourist destination full of life, attractions and benefits with no equal.â? The investment will be dedicated to promoting tourism in North America and throughout the rest of the world, both encouraging Mexicans to get to know their own heritage, and continuing to show the rest of the world the benefits of coming to Mexico. The message which â??Vive Mexicoâ? has for the world will be delivered through various media, and using celebrities such as actors and soccer players, and public figures from all walks of fame. The campaign has been called â??much more than just a promotional campaign â?? itâ??s a national movement which requires the participation of all Mexicans.â? In addition to the campaign itself, numerous other initiatives are being undertaken. One is an updated version of Playa del Carmenâ??s Digital Tourist Service Catalogue (Catalogo Turistico Digital), which includes catalogue of all services of interest to tourists in Playa and has been distributed on CD and very successfully received on an international level. The new version will included data from a recent census to offer more complete information. Also the government of this state is organizing an event (â??Vive la Vida en el Caribe Mexicano, Travel Shop el Mall de los Viajesâ?) to complement the national program with promotion specific to Quintana Roo. So, thereâ??s going to be a lot of publicity â?? what else is going to be offered? In Playa del Carmen and the Riviera Maya, there are going to be reduced prices, all-inclusive packages which now include even more, such as extra nights in hotels, free entrance into eco parks, and numerous other incentives for tourists. Some packages are being offered as low as 50%. The campaign will focus on bolstering tourism this coming summer season, that is, within the next couple of months. For the Playa del Carmen real estate this means one thing; tourism, a key element in the market here, will rebounds and probably quite quickly. As tourism grows, the market trend will turn back up. This factor, in addition to numerous others which will give buyers confidence in the Playa del Carmen Real Estate market, make this an ideal time to invest in Playa del Carmen.

Puerto Vallarta real estate slowed down considerably because of the global recession, then by the lull in tourism triggered by the swine flu travel advisory.  Although the global economic situation continues, Puerto Vallarta´s resilient charm and beauty are bringing the tourists back again.  This is good news for Puerto Vallarta real estate, showing that the cityâ??s key industry is resilient and will continue to be strong.

Among the good signs are that hotel occupancy in Puerto Vallarta is rising weekly.  This week has seen a 5.7% increase over the last week.  Several factors have played a role in this.  While tourism has been on an increase throughout Mexico, specific initiatives for this area have also had an impact.

One example of these initiatives is the â??Jalisco en Vivoâ? concert which was held in Puerto Vallarta on June 20th.  The concert, which was planned with the primary goal of rebuilding tourism, attracted a local, national and international audience.  Among other factors, this concert helped the effort to slow down and eventually reverse the drop off of tourism; the week before the concert had seen a 14.3% decrease in hotel occupancy, while the weak of the concert felt less of an impact, with an 8.6% decrease.  Now, the during the third week after the event, hotel occupancy has increased 5.7%.

There is hope that the initial success of the concert will be repeated on as the concert is aired on T.V. throughout Mexico, Latin America, parts of the U.S. and some places in Europe.  On the Saturday, July 11, the program received strong ratings on Mexican T.V., and the concert should continue to draw touristsâ?? attention â?? both Mexican and international – to Puerto Vallarta.

Another program, this time on the state level, is giving free guided tours and excursions from Guadalajara.  These program includes 40 destinations of the stateâ??s 11 main tourist destinations (including Puerto Vallarta), offering 120 excursions for more than 5000 tourists.  The trips include transportation and guided tours, and will be offered until August 21st.  The program will be promoted in over 60 information booths, and has seen an investment of about 1,200,000 pesos.  Although the focus of this program is local tourism, the presence of more tourists will support tourist based businesses in areas entirely dependent on this industry, helping to boost the industry while international tourism continues to rise.

These and other factors are helping tourism in Puerto Vallarta, the cityâ??s main industry, move upward again, and quickly.  Those interested in Puerto Vallarta real estate will see this as a good sign, as we wait for the global recession to turn around.